The Best Bet Every Year in Fantasy Football is...

By Football Yapper · June 26, 2026 · Play For Keeps Articles

The Best Bet Every Year in Fantasy Football is...

WRs who have joined a new team or their situation has drastically changed.
That could be HC, OC and/or QB related

Every year in REDRAFT leagues the average drafter is scared to take players they have yet to see produce with their new found surroundings. They don't want to project something they don't know. But if you do the research to project production and fit with the WRs situation, you can have a much better understanding of what to expect. I'm here to do the research for you and help you make those CALCULATED risks. (Rookies will only be mentioned in honorable mentions because this theory does apply to them but it kinda feels like cheating)

Here are some prior examples of success with this theory just dating back to 2020:

2025 George Pickens -> Cowboys ADP WR29 Finish WR5
2022 AJ Brown -> Eagles ADP WR11 Finish WR5
2022 Tyreek Hill -> Dolphins ADP WR8 Finish WR2
2022 Christian Kirk -> Jaguars ADP WR38 Finish WR11
2021 Cooper Kupp -> Matt Stafford ADP WR19 Finish WR1
2020 Stefon Diggs -> Bills ADP WR23 Finish WR3
All numbers are full PPR scoring

Now this is not to say for everyone that joins a new team or gets a QB/OC upgrade is automatically going to beat their ADP. But often times these players are mispriced because their is NO PREVIOUS DATA for what they can produce. This means that their ceiling can be much higher than their ADPs. We can compare stats and data from the WRs previous stops, with his new QB or his new OCs tendencies to see if they are a good match. For example:

Last year GEORGE PICKENS was my favorite bet of this group and here were my notes on why:

-Pickens never scored more than 5 TDs with the Steelers BUT in just his TRUE FRESHMAN season at Georgia he had 8 TDs on just 49 Receptions: He clearly profiled as a TD scorer in a better more pass heavy offense and we all know what early breakout college success means for the NFL
-From 2023-2024 the #1 player in passing yards on 15+ yard go routes and #2 on attempts was Dak Prescott and from 2023-2024 the #1 player with the most yards on 15+ yard go routes, #2 in catches was George Pickens: These stats sold me. It was a MATCH MADE IN HEAVEN
-Last 10 years 10 sets of teammates (so average 1 a season) have both finished as WR1s (Top 12 WR) and an average of 4 sets of teammates PER YEAR are both at the same time top 24 fantasy WRs: This stat made me realize the ceiling could still be there even as the #2 guy
-This plus Dallas was projected for one of the worst defenses and a lot of shootout scripts

DOING THE RESEARCH is what allows you to take the calculated risk of SMASHING the draft button every time Pickens was in range. Now this is something that DOES NOT happen every year. The WR29 Finishing as the WR5. But it is a clear example of WRs in new situations having the ability to EXPLODE!!

Now that I've established some credibility in my first article with the site, lets dive into some of MY FAVORITE BETS for this theory this year:

Start with the Honorable Mentions (In no order):

Mike Evans ADP WR26
Will probably play in more 2 WR sets than he ever has in his career and can't wait to see what Shanahan has in store for him. Solid fit with Purdy TD upside is massive some minor health concerns with that entire football team. I think he is slightly underpriced so that is baked into ADP.

AJ Brown ADP WR9
The main issue in Philly with AJ was that he was not getting the volume to satisfy himself or fantasy managers since that 2022 season. You'd like to think the Patriots want to keep him happy and will feed him but Drake also likes to spread it around. I think he's barely underpriced should be a top 10 WR easily. Did he he start to hit decline or did he just not care last year? Either way WR9 Is a good price I'd probably be a little ahead of ADP on that.

Garrett Wilson ADP WR17
It's always very hard to bet on the Jets in fantasy but I think that they've taken some steps to be a competent offense this season for hopefully at least Garrett and Breece. New OC Frank Reich and Geno are already an upgrade from last year and they drafted 2 other weapons in the 1st round that should take some attention away from Garrett which he’s never really had. Adams became the 1 with Rodgers. Undeniably he has the potential for a top 10 WR season but taking a Jet is a risk that is tough to bet on. Reich hasn’t had a successful year coaching football in a like 5 years. Think he’s fairly priced because the talent and upside.

Carnell Tate ADP WR30
Good when the play breaks down which I think will fit Cam Ward well. 9 out of the last 10 WRs drafted in top 10 saw 100+ targets in their rookie year the only one who did not was Travis Hunter. Daboll has taken young WRs to major heights I think he is fairly priced I would not want to bank on him as my WR2 more of a great flex/WR3. There is a lot of other factors that need to go well for him to succeed like the leap of Cam Ward which I do believe in.

Jordan Tyson ADP WR35
I am very high on Tyson as a prospect and very high on the Saints offense to take a big leap this year. Kellen Moore is first in pace and more plays = more opportunities for points. The Saints play 10 games in a dome this year and have a nice playoff schedule of Bucs, Cards, Falcons. Best routes charted by Reception Perception were over the middle where Olave does his least work. Really like the fit a lot and I trust Kellen Moore as an offensive coach. Good upside WR 3/4 pick.

DJ Moore ADP WR27
Since 2020 Diggs we have been searching for Josh Allen’s next true WR1 that he can rely on and target all the time. A true alpha that could blow Shakir's production out of the water. However, I'm concerned about the recent decline of just simply receiving yards per game for DJ. Over the last 3 seasons DJ Moore’s receiving yards per game has gone down from 80 in 2023, to 57 in 2024, to just 40 in 2025. I see the upside potential because of the situation but the Bills love to run the ball and always express that they like to spread it around too. Joe Brady being head coach could maybe change things but he's been calling the plays. His receiving lines on Draft Kings are O/U 825.5 Receiving yards and O/U 6.5 TDs. That is a tough bet for me in round 4 or 5. I think he's overpriced.

NOW LET THE LIST BEGIN:

NUMBER 5: Wan'dale Robinson ADP WR47

Wan'dale followed the man who drafted him in Brian Daboll to Tennessee and signed a very committed 4 year $70 million deal to do so. This shows what Daboll thinks of Wan'dale. He is his reliable, slot, target earner that can be a best friend for QBs and PPR fantasy football lineups. He's had over 140 targets the last 2 seasons under Daboll and finished as the WR14 last year in total points. I think WR47 is an awesome value for a bench WR with much more upside.

NUMBER 4: Ladd McConkey ADP WR18

In comes Mike McDaniel the man who will transform this offense to make it hyper productive and benefit what his WRs do best. The Shanahan coaching tree has carried many below average QBs to hyper efficient seasons which all lead to ELITE fantasy production for the talent around them. Justin Herbert is a rare example of a very talented QB inheriting a Shanahan disciple and I think this offense, health permitted could be in for a massive season. Ladd will be a big part of that.

In Miami under McDaniel, Tua had a 4.8% TD rate EVERY SINGLE YEAR they were together. For reference Patrick Mahomes hasn't had a season of 4.5% or higher since 2022.

As a rookie, Ladd had over 2.5 YPRR and instantly became the WR1 in the Chargers offense. McDaniel and Herbert will help him get back there this year. ALSO, last year the Chargers offense was significantly affected by the injuries to both tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Slater missed the entire year and Alt played in just 6 games. To put their impact on the offense in perspective, last year Herbert was QB3 before Alt's injury and finished the season as the QB10. Herbert averaged 0.56 fantasy points per drop back with Joe Alt and 0.43 without him: That was the difference between QB7 and QB21 in 2025. This is all without their other bookend tackle in Slater too. A lot went wrong last year and I am betting on the guy who finished at the WR13 as a rookie 2 years ago. He's getting one of the best offensive systems historically with elite QB play to back him. I'll take that bet all day.

NUMBER 3: Terry McLaurin ADP WR22

Just 2 years ago we saw Terry Mclaurin finally have the season we all have been waiting for with Jayden Daniels unlocking the talent. Last year there was too much going on with the contract pre season, Jayden was unhealthy, Terry was unhealthy partly because he missed camp most likely. This year I am buying the bounce back from both of them with a fresh offensive coordinator in town. David Blough came in and in his first press conference said that the offense is going to be built around Terry and getting him 10 targets a game and explosive receptions. THAT IS AWESOME STUFF. The changes from the Kingsbury offense will be crucial for Terry's success. Blough spent his last 2 stops as a player with Kevin O'Connell in 2022 and Ben Johnson in 2023. We know how creative those guys are and he is going to bring pieces from both of them. According to Reception Perception Terry was 60th in pre snap motion the last 2 years and ran 37% hitch routes last season. Those don't sound like explosive or creative opportunities to me. The stats back it up: Over the last 2 seasons Terry has been the WR14 on just WR26 usage meaning that he is outproducing other WRs who are being utilized more in their offenses. One final note: Blough has also expressed not just much more pre snap motion but also that they will play a much higher rate of under center, play action style offense. Jayden Daniels in his career from shotgun averages 7.2 yards per attempt and on play action averages 8.5 yards per attempt. With the commitment from the staff to feed Terry and a full healthy offseason from him and his QB, he could be in store for a monster season. I love being ahead of ADP on WR22.

NUMBER 2: Michael Pittman ADP WR41

Aaron Rodgers reunites with his old pal Mike McCarthy who has a history of FEEDING slot WRs. 7 of McCarthy's last 13 seasons coached, his slot WR have finished top 10 in fantasy points. McCarthy went out and got Pittman and paid him 3 years $59 million. The Colts saw Pittman as a cap casualty and the Steelers see him as a weapon and I agree. Pittman was WR6 up until week 9 last season when Daniel Jones got hurt. He finished the season as the WR26 and with Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard under center he only had 1 game with more than 32 yards after the Jones injury. Pittman last year ran just under 30% of his routes from the slot and everyone knows Rodgers big history of not trusting rookies too much even though I am a fan of Germie Bernard, I think Pittman is the veteran short route winner who is a big target that Rodgers will trust right away. And now for the cherry on top...

Pittman was 71st/76 WRs with 50+ Targets in ADOT
Rodgers was 36th/36 QBS with 200+ Attempts in ADOT

This is a potential MATCH MADE IN HEAVEN folks...kinda like the player I talked about at the start. However temper expectations a little because it is short routes not go balls but I think he has the potential to be a PPR stud and a steal at WR41. I am SMASHING Pittman every chance I get this year in ALL FORMATS.

NUMBER 1: Jaylen Waddle ADP WR23

Jaylen Waddle is my favorite bet to be the George Pickens of this season. Being drafted in the mid WR20s with top 5 finish potential. Sean Peyton may spread targets around but that is when he doesn't have an answer. He fed Michael Thomas. He paid up for his answer with a 1st, 3rd and 4th in 2026. Almost their entire draft. Denver kind of struggled to run the ball last year especially once Dobbins went down so they had to rely a lot more on their pass game. They were 4th in pass attempts last season to Miami's 30th. Sutton is also a true X WR, and will play the majority of his snaps on the outside. Waddle was always the 2 in Miami, so Reception Perception actually had a lot of his routes charted as the X WR there which is not what he profiles as at all and he still remained one of the most efficient WRs in the NFL.
(https://x.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/2034299045154345242?s=20)

Jaylen Waddle only at a 1.5% Screen rate is criminal. He will get much more layup and quick targets in Denver with Sutton playing the X.

Waddle has taken a backseat to Tyreek for his career and still averaged 2.4 YPRR in 3 of their 4 seasons together while playing the more difficult of the WR roles. In Denver, Waddle will clearly settle into that Y and Z role and get moved around a lot more focally in this Davis Webb offense. Webb has been a highly touted candidate for a while, even for some head coaching jobs. He spent the 2020 season with the Bills and explained in a press conference how he sees similarity to Josh Allen ENTERING HIS 3RD YEAR and adding Diggs with Bo Nix ENTERING YEAR 3 and getting Waddle on the squad. "I'll take stuff you love to hear for 1000 thanks." Sean Peyton also doesn't just hand play calling duties to anyone... like ever. I've loved the talent since college and think it is finally the year it all comes together and Waddle is a SMASH in all formats this year.

Tags: Redraft · Bestball

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